The most recent Detroit Purchasing Managers Report can be accessed from the Walsh College Web Site:  Click Here  

The Detroit Purchasing Managers Report

The Directors of the 800-member Detroit Chapter of the National Association of Purchasing Management, an affiliate of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), are collaborating with Walsh College to gather data and assist in preparing the Metropolitan Detroit Purchasing Managers’ Report.

The survey is maintained and reported on by Dr. David R. Allardice, who joined Walsh College in 2006 as director of the new Executive Leadership Program and director of the recently launched Master of Science degree in International Business.   Previously, Dr. Allardice served at Lawrence Technological University, where he was associate dean and director of the doctoral program in business administration. Prior to that, he spent 27 years as an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank System in Chicago and Detroit. He is the author of economic impact studies for the Detroit Super Bowl XL Committee and the Detroit Thoroughbred Raceway. He compiles the monthly Detroit Purchasing Managers Report, which policymakers, forecasters, and investors use to obtain an early read on developing economic conditions.  Dr. Allardice holds doctoral, master’s and bachelor’s degrees in economics from Colorado State University.

Changes to The Metro Detroit Survey Methodology

Several changes have been made to the Purchasing Managers report, which had been maintained by Comerica Bank for the past 20 yearst. First, the survey data is collected and tabulated in a Web-based format rather than the previous surface mail format. According to er NAPM-Metro Detroit.  Allardice states, "By using the College of Management's web-based mode of data collection, it is anticipated that a greater number of members will respond to the survey. This provides broader coverage and a more statistically valid survey result. It also shortens the time between the collection and release of the data, making the report more relevant to policy and decision makers and those tracking changes in the Detroit regional economy."

The report is now released on the first business day each month. This early data release gives policymakers, forecasters, and investors an early read on developing economic conditions. Reports of the National and other regional Purchasing Managers’ Associations gain both national and local attention because they are released early in the month.

Linkage To National Economic Reports

One of the most widely tracked economic reports on the U.S. economy is the Report on Business, a monthly report issued by the Institute for Supply  Management (ISM). The Report’s most widely cited single feature is a summary statistic called the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which indicates whether various economic sectors are expanding or contracting. The PMI has earned immense recognition over the years from economists and forecasters because of the report’s early and accurate reflection of the entire economy.

The PMI is a composite index based on diffusion indices for five indicators of economic activity (new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories).  A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent, that it is generally declining.  A PMI over 42.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is generally expanding; below 42.7 percent, that the economy is generally declining.

The Detroit NAPM survey bears many similarities to the national report, but the two reports are not strictly comparable.  What ultimately makes the Detroit and U.S. data different is the scope of coverage.  The national survey divides the data into two panels, one for manufacturing and another for non-manufacturing.  By comparison, the Detroit index mixes manufacturing and non-manufacturing.   In addition, the Detroit survey collects data from the NAPM members in the Detroit Metropolitan region, which has a different mix of economic drivers compared to the national economy. The Detroit data reported is not seasonally adjusted at this time, while the national level data is reported on an adjusted basis.  It will take approximately 3 years of data collection before the Detroit data can be seasonally adjusted.

"During my 27 years as an economist with the Federal Reserve System," Allardice notes, "the National and regional Purchasing Managers' Reports were closely monitored by policymakers both locally and in Washington. I anticipate that the new monthly Detroit reports will receive similar national and regional attention, given the importance of the automotive industry to the national economy.

2008 Calendar of Release Dates:

When its time to complete our Economic Survey,  please visit the following web site  < https://www-secure.walshcollege.edu/walshsurvey/walshtechsurvey.aspx?surveyid=13  > and complete an on-line Purchasing Managers' Survey.   This online survey should take 2 to 3 minutes to complete (trust us on that). The  2008 calendar is as follows:

2008
Jan 21, 22, 23 - 2008
Feb 25, 26, 27 - 2008
Mar 24, 25, 26 - 2008
Apr 21, 22, 23 - 2008 
May 19, 20, 21 - 2008
Jun 23, 24, 25 - 2008
Jul 28, 29, 30 - 2008
Aug 25, 26, 27 - 2008
Sep 22, 23, 24 - 2008
Oct 27, 28, 29 - 2008
Nov 17, 18, 19 - 2008
Dec 15, 15, 17 - 2008

To ensure that we have an accurate reading of responses, the site will not ba available to access except during these dates.

Monthly report findings

Monthly report findings are available on the Walsh College website at http://www.walshcollege.edu/?id=58&sid=1   . For additional information on the Detroit Purchasing Managers Report, contact Dr. Allardice at dallardice@walshcollege.edu or 248-823-1274, or Steven Welsh of the NAPM-Metro Detroit at profswelsh@wideopenwest.com  or 734-355-8360.